\u3000\u3000 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) (002078)
The company issued a performance forecast. The performance of 2021q4 was under pressure and maintained the "buy" rating
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 2.85 billion-3.12 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 45.92% - 59.75%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.829 billion-3.099 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 47.10% - 61.13%, and the earnings per share of RMB 1.075-1.177/share. In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 82 million-352 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 38.40% - 85.69% and a month on month decrease of 34.48% - 84.78%, It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be deducted from 108 million yuan to 378 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 36.54% - 81.86% and a month on month decrease of 28.41% - 79.53%. The performance of 2021q4 is under pressure and the profit forecast will be lowered. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.992/35.80/4.023 billion yuan (formerly 3.351/40.74/4.719 billion yuan), the corresponding EPS will be 1.11/1.33/1.50 yuan, and the current share price will be 10.1/8.5/7.5 times PE, With the production capacity of Guangxi Beihai project put into operation, the degree of "pulp and paper integration" is expected to improve, the fundamentals of cultural paper hit the bottom, optimize the pattern, and the leading companies are more competitive and maintain the "buy" rating.
Revenue side: the recovery range of cultural paper demand in 2021q4 is limited, and the inventory pressure of box board corrugated paper is high
In 2021q3, the products originally sold in overseas markets were resold to China to occupy the cultural paper market. At the same time, the demand side was affected by the double reduction policy, the cultural paper price continued to decline, the Q4 cultural paper price remained relatively stable, and the orders of downstream printing plants and dealers were gradually promoted, but the inventory level was still high, the market held a wait-and-see attitude, and the recovery range of cultural paper demand was limited. As the downstream viscose fiber is in the off-season, the company adjusted the production line of dissolved pulp, and the output decreased. In terms of box board corrugated paper, the prosperity of q1-q3 industry was high in 2021, leading companies raised prices one after another, some cultural paper production lines of the company switched to box board corrugated paper, the income increased steadily, the inventory of Q4 box board corrugated paper increased, the shipment slowed down, and the demand is expected to recover with the advent of holidays in the future.
Profit side: the profit of 2021q4 cultural paper has hit the bottom, and the industry pattern is expected to be further optimized
In 2021, the gross profit margin of Q4 cultural paper was under pressure, mainly due to the impact of a series of supply chain problems of overseas pulp producing countries from mid November 2021, the import of wood pulp decreased, the supply side was tight, the price of wood pulp increased, and the price recovery of cultural paper was limited due to weak demand. In the future, with the reduction of the impact of overseas epidemic and the recovery of demand, the import volume is expected to decline, the gross profit of cultural paper has reached the bottom, and the clearance of small and medium-sized production capacity will be accelerated. In the future, the industry pattern will be better, and we are optimistic about the restoration of the profitability of cultural paper. The price of box board corrugated paper decreased slightly. From mid November 2021, the price of box board corrugated paper was under pressure, mainly due to the decline of waste paper price and the initial overcapacity, and the paper enterprises increased their promotion efforts.
Risk tip: the demand recovery is less than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the company's production capacity is less than expected.
