\u3000\u3000 Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) (600779)
Event: the company released the annual performance forecast for 2021, which is in line with our previous expectations. In 2021, the company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 4.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.1%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64%, a sales volume of 11000 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 40.3%, and a ton price of 420000 yuan / kiloliter, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%; In the single quarter of 2021q4, the company expects to achieve a revenue of 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.1%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 13.4%, a sales volume of 2781.2 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of + 6.3%, and a ton price of 435000 yuan / kiloliter, a year-on-year increase of + 7.3%.
The annual high growth was in line with expectations, and Q4 short-term factors led to a phased slowdown in growth. Throughout the year, Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) achieved a simultaneous increase in volume and price at the revenue end, with sales volume and ton price + 40.3% / + 9.8% respectively year-on-year. According to the performance forecast, the company’s sales growth was all from the medium and high-end liquor, the sub high-end volume price belt of Jingtai and zhenniang No. 8 card, so as to seize the opportunity of industrial expansion and accelerate development; On the performance side, the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 25.9% in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.6pct, and the annual performance increased by 64% year-on-year, far exceeding the company’s annual target, which is in line with our previous expectations. In the single quarter of Q4, the company’s revenue growth slowed down month on month, and its performance was lower than that of the same period last year, mainly due to factors such as the dislocation of delivery in the off-season. It is expected that the company will still maintain a rapid growth rate in 2022. At the same time, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the single quarter of Q4 is 16.4%, up-5.2pct year-on-year. It is expected that the main reason is that the company adheres to publicity investment to actively promote the high-end products, The increase in expenses led to a decline in the profit margin in a single quarter, which is a normal phenomenon for the company to practice the preliminary strategic planning.
Growth is on the way, and development needs more attention. At present, the company’s product layout is becoming more and more perfect. Zhenniang No. 8 card slot has a large-scale price band of 400 yuan. The well pad undertakes the upgrading of secondary high-end internal consumption, and the collection layout has a price band of 1000 yuan. Superimposed on the brand publicity of Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) for many years, “the first shop in the world” is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. In the future, the high-end products of the company are still on the way, thanks to the excellent product portfolio, The company is expected to continue to benefit from consumption upgrading dividends. On the channel side, the company operates its collection products in a new mode. 25 dealers jointly establish a high-end wine sales company to release the enthusiasm of the channel and further open the ceiling of the company’s development. It is expected to achieve new development in the 1000 yuan price belt in the future; On the operating side, the company released the employee stock ownership plan to release its internal vitality. Taking the revenue growth rate as the assessment index, it is expected to continuously improve the company’s market share in the sub high-end price band, focus on the eight markets and achieve new development.
Profit forecast: slightly adjust the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company will achieve a revenue of 4.63/59.0/7.36 billion yuan in 2021-23 (originally 4.61/58.6/7.31 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of + 54.1% / 27.3% / 24.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.20/16.6/2.15 billion yuan (originally 1.22/16.5/2.14 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of + 63.9% / 38.1% / + 30.1%. The current share price corresponds to 43 / 31 / 24 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the macro economy is down, the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected, and the promotion of new products is lower than expected.
