\u3000\u3000 Beijing Inhand Networks Technology Co.Ltd(688080) (688080)
Performance review
The company released the performance forecast for 2021 on January 26. It is expected to realize the median net profit attributable to the parent company of 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 148.4%, deducting the median non net profit of 65.55 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102.9%. Business analysis
The annual performance increased significantly, with seasonal fluctuations in a single quarter. The performance increased significantly in 2021. Due to the release of a variety of new products and mass production of the industrial Internet of things, the intelligent sales control system continued to upgrade and improve the cloud management platform and increase the support of a variety of equipment protocols, with a wider market coverage. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 in a single quarter is 8.09 million yuan, with a deduction of non-2.51 million yuan. Q4 is the off-season of iwos bidding procurement, and the layout of self-service equipment is highly correlated with the season. In the future, with the implementation of new solutions such as sales cabinet networking, meal taking cabinet and power change cabinet, some seasonal effects can be smoothed. The non recurring profit and loss during the reporting period is expected to be 35 million yuan, mainly the investment income recognized by the passive dilution of the equity of the subsidiary.
We believe that technology, product innovation and platform capability are the core competitiveness of the company. The company laid out vertical industries such as smart grid and new retail, and grasped the core application scenarios: the independently developed iwos products integrated a number of technologies to solve the industrial problem of “single-phase grounding fault detection and location of small current grounding system”, and the accuracy of fault identification increased from 50% to 90%; The vending machine system provides a “cloud + end” comprehensive solution to improve business efficiency for customers. The company continues to make fine vertical industry solutions and pays attention to the capacity-building of China and Taiwan, which is conducive to technology reuse, new product incubation and reducing R & D costs.
Smart power, new retail and other industries have broad growth space and are optimistic about the long-term growth of the company. The newly disclosed investment plans of State Grid and China Southern Power Grid have increased significantly. It is expected that the total investment on the distribution network side of the Chinese market will increase by 40% + in the next five years, and iwos products are expected to increase by 20%, 30% and 50% in the next three years. The normalization of the epidemic promotes the increase in the distribution of vending cabinets, superimposing the trend of intelligence. It is expected that the growth rate of the company’s product line will be about 30% in the next three years. In the future, the company will continue to strengthen the construction of China and Taiwan and the research and development of new products, expand the overseas market and improve the channel construction. It is expected that the compound growth rate of profits in the next three years will be about 40%.
Profit adjustment and valuation suggestions
We lowered the revenue growth rate in 2021 and increased three rates. It is estimated that the revenue in 21-23 will be 440 (- 7.5%) / 592 (- 7.7%) / 798 (- 7.6%) million yuan, and the net profit will be 111 (- 9.3%) / 1.44 (- 6.5%) / 190 (- 6.3%) million yuan, corresponding to 27 times of PE in 22 years, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Power grid investment is less than expected, new product R & D and market promotion are less than expected, market competition is fierce, overseas market expansion is less than expected, supply chain risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, shareholder reduction.
