\u3000\u3000 China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) (600905)
The company issued the performance forecast for 2021, and the annual performance met the expectations: according to the company’s announcement, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 5.57-5.83 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 54.28% – 61.48%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 5.10-5.33 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 46.53% – 53.14%. Among them, non recurring gains and losses are the increase in investment income caused by the company’s disposal of Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) equity. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit of RMB 1.075-1.305 billion, which is significantly higher than the net profit of RMB 800 million in the fourth quarter of 2020.
The installed capacity and power generation increased significantly, driving the high growth of performance in 2021: according to the company’s announcement, the company added 0.83gw of installed capacity in the first half of 2021, with a cumulative installed capacity of 16.4gw. In 2021, the cumulative total power generation was 33.069 billion kwh, an increase of 42.52% over the same period of last year, mainly due to the year-on-year increase in new projects and total installed capacity. Among them, in 2021, the annual wind power generation was 22.789 billion kwh, an increase of 44.68% over the same period of the previous year, including 19.458 billion kwh of onshore wind power and 3.331 billion kwh of offshore wind power respectively; Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) the completed power generation was 9.499 billion kwh, an increase of 42.91% over the same period last year. The significant increase in power generation will drive the company’s performance to achieve high growth in 2021. At the same time, the increase in installed capacity is expected to lay the foundation for the company’s performance growth in 2022.
Offshore wind power has ushered in the peak of production. Looking forward to 2022, the performance is expected to rise to another level: according to the announcement issued by the national energy administration, China’s offshore wind power will add 16.9gw of installed capacity in 2021, with a cumulative installed capacity of 26.38gw. At the same time, according to our statistics, according to the company’s announcement, Polaris power grid and international wind power grid, China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) in 2021, 2.8gw of offshore wind power has been installed to realize full capacity grid connection, including 1GW in Yangjiang Shaba phase III / IV / V, 0.8gw in Rudong project, 0.3gw in Jiangsu Dafeng project, 0.3gw in Yangxi project and 0.4gw in Yangjiang Shaba phase II. The full capacity grid connected offshore wind power project in 2021 will contribute to the performance of full power generation this year. At the same time, with the subsidy of offshore wind project, offshore wind power has strong profitability and is expected to bring high performance growth in 2022.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 18.01 billion, 24.61 billion and 28.53 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 59.2%, 36.6% and 15.9% respectively; The net profit was 5.62 billion, 8.26 billion and 9.61 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 55.6%, 47.0% and 16.3% respectively. The corresponding PE valuation from 2021 to 2023 was 34.0, 23.1 and 19.9 times respectively, and the six-month target price was 8.5 yuan.
Risk warning: the project production progress is less than expected, the power demand is less than expected, and the policy promotion is less than expected
