\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957)
Event: the company issued a performance forecast, and it is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 820-890 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 50.87% – 63.75%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 770 million yuan to 840 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50.2% – 63.85%. The non recurring profit and loss was about 45-55 million yuan of investment income and government subsidies. According to our calculation, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the single quarter of 2021q4 was 470-540 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.8% – 63.1%.
Diversified channel expansion is effective. Tiktok has continuously strengthened its channel construction. Online channels have experienced the operation of the traditional comprehensive e-commerce platform. On this basis, the company has continuously developed new business platforms such as jitter and Kwai, and has actively operated private sector traffic, and the growth potential has been further released. In terms of offline channels, the company promotes the layout of OTC, Watsons and specialty stores. By the end of September, the company had laid out more than 20000 OTC channels. With the further expansion of offline outlets and the integrated development of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) , the sales potential of the company is expected to be further released.
The position of the main brand is stable, and the brand matrix continues to incubate. With the effectiveness of the company’s early marketing publicity and brand promotion, the market popularity of the company’s main brand Winona has been further improved. During the “double 11” period, the sales volume of Winona brand ranked first among domestic products of tmall beauty and skin care. Under the background of Q4 promotion, the sales volume of main brands with gradually improved brand image is released rapidly, and the profitability is optimized under the scale effect. It is expected that the company’s Q4 performance is better than the revenue. While continuously strengthening the competitive advantage of main brands, the company accelerated the incubation of new brands. The promotion of Winona baby, a subsidiary brand of the company, is gradually effective, and the annual revenue is expected to be nearly 100 million yuan in 2021. With the improvement of Winona baby’s online channel, it is expected that the sales will be further released in 2022. In addition, the company will also focus on incubating medical beauty high-end brands in 2022, and the new brands are expected to bring new revenue contributions to the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. With the expansion of the company’s channels and the gradual improvement of the brand matrix, we believe that the company’s market competitiveness will be further strengthened. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.01 yuan, 2.83 yuan and 3.77 yuan respectively, maintaining the “hold” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of intensified industry competition and lower than expected terminal sales.
