\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957)
On the afternoon of January 26, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021.
Key investment points:
The annual performance is expected to increase by more than 50%, and Q4 continues to grow rapidly. In 2021, the company is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 820-890 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 50.87% to 63.75%), and the net profit deducted from the non parent company of 770-840 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 50.20% to 63.85%), with a bright growth in performance, mainly due to the further improvement of the company's product and brand popularity, which has promoted the market development and achieved a rapid growth in sales scale and sales revenue. Among them, Q1 / Q2 / Q3 net profit attributable to the parent company was + 45.83% / + 75.13% / + 64.29% year-on-year respectively. Q4 is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 465-535 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 41.59% to 62.92%), continuing the previous rapid growth.
Online multi platform layout has achieved remarkable results, and offline image stores have been opened to improve brand reputation. ① Online: Winona, the main brand, won the 6th place in the turnover of beauty brands during tmall's double 11 (November 1-11, 2021). Reptile data show that Winona's official flagship store has double sales of over 1 billion 600 million during the double eleven period, and the top three products are Shu Min moisturizing special cream / relieving repair and freeze-dried mask / sunscreen. In addition, Kwai melon and melon tiktok were invited to "X Winona special" to create a miracle of sales. ② Offline: in September 2021, the company opened its first offline experience center in Shanghai. In the future, it is expected to open more offline image stores to improve brand reputation.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: Recently, the supervision of the cosmetics industry has become stricter. As a leading enterprise of sensitive skin care, the company is expected to achieve the strength by virtue of its brand, products, channels and other advantages. As the main brand Winona continues to expand on major e-commerce platforms, other brands such as Winona baby are expected to become the second growth curve. In addition, the company has set up a private fund subsidiary, which is expected to provide project reserves for the parent company in the future and further enhance the company's influence in the field of skin health industry. We raised our previous profit forecast. It is expected that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.00/2.79/3.80 yuan / share respectively, and the PE corresponding to the closing price on January 26, 2022 will be 81 / 58 / 43 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk factors: the risk of continuous epidemic, the risk that the expansion of new brands is less than expected, and the risk of intensified competition.
