\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957)
Event:
The company issued the performance forecast for 2021.
Key points of the report:
The annual performance slightly exceeded expectations, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 51% - 64%
The company announced that in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 820-890 million, with a year-on-year increase of 50.87% ~ 63.75%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was RMB 770-840 million, with a year-on-year increase of 50.20% ~ 63.85%. The annual performance growth rate was higher than that of the previous year. In a single quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company of q1-3 is 79 / 186 / 90 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 46% / 75% / 64%. Q4 is expected to be 465-535 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.77% ~ 63.11%. The net profit of Q4 alone accounts for about 60% of the whole year. Benefiting from the further improvement of brand and product popularity, the sales scale and revenue of the company have achieved rapid growth.
The main brand products and channels have been further expanded, and Winona baby has emerged
1) the product end: Shu Min series of large single product status is stable, freeze-dried mask and other "Shu Min +" new products show bright. During the double 11, the sales of Shumin moisturizing cream, a big single product of stars, exceeded 4 million bottles in the whole network, reaching a record high; "Shu Min +" new freeze-drying mask sales exceeded 2 million boxes, sunscreen, moisturizing and repairing essence sold 100 million, to promote brand growth. Tiktok: 2) channel side: online Tmall platform keeps high growth, and the channel of Kwai Yin and fast hand are obviously obvious. According to the data of business consultants and flying melon, the annual turnover of Winona Tmall flagship store was estimated to exceed 2 billion 300 million in 2021, the growth rate was 40%+, and the turnover volume of the trumpet store was 400 million, and the tiktok volume was fast. The offline layout has been enriched and improved. Among them, the coverage rate of OTC pharmacies continued to rise, and the expansion in South China, North China and other regions was steadily promoted, with more than 18000 outlets covered by Q3; Watsons 4000 + outlets have basically achieved full coverage, and new beauty collection stores such as Xiran continue to be laid out. In addition, since the second half of 2021, the company has accelerated the construction of brand flagship stores. Q3 has opened offline flagship stores / experience centers in Kunming and Shanghai, and entered the department store channel. In December, the company opened the first counter in China in Hangzhou West Lake Yintai, further broadening the channel. 3) Multi brand matrix: Winona baby is emerging, and its double 11 debut has entered the top 10 of tmall baby skin care, which is expected to become the second growth curve of the company. In addition, in 22 years, the company plans to launch a new brand with a price of 1000 yuan + anti-aging, which is expected to fill the vacancy of domestic high-end brands.
Investment advice and profit forecast
The company is the leader of Chinese dermatology grade skin care products, with obvious advantages of Medical Research Co creation system. The main brand Winona is still in a period of rapid growth, and the sub brand Winona baby is gradually in large quantity. The new high-end anti-aging brand is expected to be listed in 22 years, and the multi brand matrix can be expected. It is estimated that the company will realize revenue of 3.946/55.34/7.473 billion, net profit attributable to the parent company of 857/12.11/1.644 billion, EPS of 2.02/2.86/3.88 yuan, corresponding PE of 80 / 57 / 42x, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The prosperity of the industry has declined; Industry competition intensifies; Risk of relative concentration of brands and channels
