\u3000\u3000 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) (002078)
Core view
Event: the company announced the annual performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.850-3.120 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 46% - 60%; Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter is expected to be 82-352 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38% - 86% and a month on month decrease of 34% - 85%.
The performance in the fourth quarter was lower than the market expectation. It is speculated that the main reason is the rapid rise of the cost of self owned power plants caused by the soaring coal price in the early stage. In the fourth quarter alone, the median net profit attributable to the parent company was about 220 million, and the annual performance center was about 2.99 billion, which was lower than the market expectation. It is speculated that the main reason is the rapid rise of the cost of self owned power plant caused by the soaring coal price in the early stage. Since August 2021, the coal price has risen rapidly. Referring to the q5500 comprehensive trading price of Qinhuangdao Power Coal, the average price of 2021q4 has increased by more than 300 yuan / ton compared with the previous period (the high point of this round has increased by about 600 yuan / ton). Since the power plants owned by the group are all listed companies, in addition to providing electricity and steam for their own pulp and paper production capacity, they are also sold to three related parties of white cardboard such as Wanguo sun, which meets the annual production capacity demand of about 10 million tons of pulp and paper; If the coal consumption per ton of pulp and paper is calculated as 400kg / T, it means that the resulting profit loss is about 300 million.
Domestic demand is relatively weak, the import repression of cultural paper still exists, and the poor supply and demand leads to the failure of smooth transmission of cost pressure. Due to the relatively weak demand in China and the suppression of imports at the supply side of cultural paper, the price of cultural paper in 2021q4 has remained at a high level since April 2021. The price of cultural paper in 2021q4 has only increased slightly by 1% month on month. The poor relationship between supply and demand has led to the failure of the upward pressure on energy costs to be smoothly transmitted to paper prices and the overall decline of profits.
At present, the cost pressure of the company has been significantly relieved, and the profit is expected to be gradually repaired. With the overall decline of coal prices since the end of October 2021, the pressure on the company's energy cost has been gradually relieved, and the worst time point has passed; At present, the price and profit of cultural paper are still below the historical quantile of about 30%. Considering that cultural paper will gradually turn into the small peak season in spring in mid and late February, the recovery of demand is expected to drive the paper price to rise moderately, and the company's profit is expected to be repaired quarterly
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
In combination with the price trend in the fourth quarter of 2021, the assumption of single ton energy cost is appropriately raised. At the same time, considering that the phase I project in Guangxi has been put into operation from September 2021 to January 2022, it is predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is expected to reach 2.989/30.80/3090 billion yuan (previously predicted to be 3.184/34.07/3.565 billion yuan), The corresponding net assets per share are 7.21/8.21/9.21 yuan respectively, and the roe is 16.8% / 14.9% / 13.2% respectively. Combined with the Pb valuation range corresponding to the historical roe, the target valuation of 2022 is 1.9 times Pb, with the corresponding target price of 15.60 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Economic growth slowed down and terminal demand fell faster than expected; The company's new pulp and paper project fails to meet the expected risk
