\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) (600522)
Event: the company issued a performance forecast. The net profit attributable to the listed company in 21 years was 100 million-150 million yuan, of which the impact of high-end communication risk event on the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 was 3.023 billion yuan, and the book value of relevant assets of high-end communication business remained 15600 yuan after accrual.
1. Risk events in 21 years are fully accrued, and 22 young people are ready to fight. In 2021, the company has accrued a total of 3.678 billion yuan for impairment of assets related to high-end communication business. After the provision, the book value of assets related to high-end communication business is 15600 yuan. After deducting income tax factors, the net profit of the company’s consolidated statements in 2021 will be reduced by 3.126 billion yuan, which is equivalent to the full provision of assets involved in risk events.
2. The net profit in a single quarter (excluding impairment) exceeded expectations and achieved rapid growth year-on-year. From October to December of 2021, the company has accrued a total of 1.594 billion yuan for the impairment of assets related to various high-end communication businesses. After deducting the income tax factor, the net profit of the company’s consolidated statements in the fourth quarter of 2021 will be reduced by 1.355 billion yuan. In a single quarter, if the impact of impairment is not considered, the net profit of 21q4 company is about 967 million yuan, which has achieved rapid growth compared with that of 20q4 in a single quarter.
3. Promote the sustained and efficient growth of marine business under the background of “carbon neutrality”. The company has been deeply engaged in the R & D, innovation and application promotion of the serialization, matching and engineering of submarine photoelectric composite cable products, breaking the international monopoly and ranking among the leading enterprises of ultra-high voltage submarine cables in the world. 1) Improving quality and efficiency to boost the rush of offshore wind power installation: 21h1 company completed several offshore wind power and submarine cable projects in China on schedule by means of technological innovation, technological transformation and speed-up, expansion and efficiency, and ensured the construction progress of several offshore wind power projects during the rush of installation. 2) Actively expand the overseas market and set a new high in the international market share: 21h1 company actively arranged the overseas market and obtained 17 orders in Canada, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Qatar and other countries, totaling about US $130 million. 3) Strength forging achievements and won many honors: 21h1 company won many awards related to submarine cable projects.
4. In depth layout of new energy industry, photovoltaic + energy storage business continues to be strong. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the company’s new energy industry will take “strengthening the integration of photovoltaic industry, expanding the advantages of energy storage industry and accelerating the layout of copper foil industry” as the development goal, deeply layout the new energy industry through the two-way integration of digitization and service, and customize all-round green energy solutions for customers. 1) The company’s photovoltaic industry gives full play to the advantages of market resources and cooperates in the operation of photovoltaic general contracting projects: 21h1 successfully landed a 50MW photovoltaic general contracting project, paving the way for the opening of the national market. On the other hand, based on the development of photovoltaic resources, we will introduce investment from central enterprises to realize Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) general contracting and leverage the expansion of “new energy + energy storage” business abroad. The reputation of Zhongtian fluorine membrane in the component end and major certification institutions continues to rise, and the supply advantage is significantly improved. 2) Based on the large-scale energy storage market and the backup power supply market, the energy storage field has developed comprehensively outside China: since 2021, Zhongtian energy storage technology has participated in design and bidding projects, with a cumulative landing of more than 250mwh. In terms of backup power supply, we focus on the communication supporting base station, firmly grasp the 5g commercial opportunity and focus on the supply of supporting backup power supply system. In the joint centralized bidding project of 21h1 China iron tower and China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) lithium iron phosphate battery for backup power, Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) won the bid with the third place, with a winning share of 349mwh, relying on the advantages of product technology and supply performance over the years.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: on the whole, the company focuses on communication + energy, optical communication, power transmission, marine business and new energy. Among them: 1) the supply-demand relationship of optical fiber and optical cable continues to improve. After the reversal of the industry, it is expected to enter a three-year boom upward cycle. As one of the leaders, the profitability of the business is expected to continue to grow upward; 2) With the joint efforts of the industrial chain, offshore wind power is expected to usher in affordable Internet access in the future. Under the dual carbon goal, the broad space of the industry in the future is expected to be fully released. As a leader of submarine cable and marine engineering, the company is expected to fully benefit. We emphasize that the space and prosperity of offshore wind must stand in the dimension of the next 5-10 years, and the prospect is very considerable, And pay attention to the global layout and global market of the company; 3) With ten years of deep cultivation of new energy and the background of high prosperity of the industry, the company’s energy storage + copper foil + photovoltaic is expected to usher in an all-round and rapid development opportunity; 4) The power business is highly competitive and is expected to fully benefit from the construction of new power system and the growth of power grid investment in the future, which is expected to show a stable and rapid growth trend. According to the performance forecast, considering that the risk of the company’s high-end communication business will be fully released in 21 years, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years is expected to be 123 million (the original value is 320 million), 3.85 billion and 4.55 billion yuan, corresponding to 13.7 times PE in 22 years, maintaining the “buy” rating!
Risk warning: upstream raw materials continue to maintain high price risk, industry technology development is less than expected risk, production expansion progress is less than expected risk, project promotion progress is less than expected risk, performance forecast is the company’s preliminary calculation, and the actual situation is subject to the annual report, etc
