\u3000\u3000 Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) (300999)
Core view: focusing on the 100 billion grain and oil giant Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) , this paper focuses on three key issues: the change of grain and oil industry, the company's core competitiveness and the company's future development space. We believe that with the peak of oil price stagnation, the industry's darkest hour is passing. At the same time, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) has five core logics of "international trader attribute", "channel network + brand cognition", "rice flour oil just need attribute", "entering condiment" and "layout central kitchen", and can obtain valuation premium in grain and oil companies. We are optimistic about the certainty and growth of the company and look forward to the elephants dancing after the cold winter.
The grain and oil industry has experienced twists and turns, and leading enterprises are looking for opportunities to overcome dangers. (1) The darkest hour of the grain and oil industry is passing. Since 2020q4, the brand packaging oil industry has entered the most difficult time in recent 10 years, with the double killing of "squeezed profit + small packaging profit". Since 21q4, the recovery of the breeding industry has brought the squeezed profits back to normal. At the same time, the price of packaging oil has been raised and the profit of small packaging has been improved. In addition, the rise of upstream prices strengthens the expectation of rice price increase. (2) The active price limit strategy promotes the industry to speed up the clearing, and the leading strong is always strong. The price limit strategy of the industry duopoly further promotes the clearing of the industry, and can also provide a good opportunity for the leader to sink the third and fourth tier cities.
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) control the production and marketing in depth and build an enterprise moat. (1) Global procurement chain: first, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) is backed by YIHAI KERRY and has the advantage of raw material procurement; Secondly, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) as a high-quality leader, it can focus on large-scale procurement and intensive production, enjoy scale effect, and have stronger cost control and profitability. Second, the price of grain and oil raw materials fluctuates violently, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) has rich hedging experience and global information advantages. (2) Brand + channel advantage: the company's brand matrix covers a comprehensive range, and the brand image is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. On the other hand, the company's multi-channel in-depth coverage continues to promote the sinking of channels. At the same time, the company actively expands a variety of channels, and its products also take a strong lead in emerging e-commerce channels.
The basic sector of rice flour, grain and oil is stable, and the comprehensive platform of kitchen food can take a long-term view. (1) Rice flour, grain and oil are just needed, and the consumption upgrading trend is obvious. The consumer demand elasticity of the industry is small, and the terminal sales price is relatively stable, but there are also opportunities for concentration improvement and product structure adjustment. (2) Condiments increase gross profit, and the central kitchen has great potential. With the existing advantages (purchasing advantages of raw materials such as soybeans and sugar, millions of terminal network services and coverage, brand building ability), the company has entered the condiment industry with higher gross profit and arranged the central kitchen project, which is expected to recreate a "kitchen revolution".
The five core logics create valuation premium and are optimistic about the certainty and growth of the company. We believe that Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) gained the valuation premium in grain and oil companies thanks to the five core logics of "international trader attribute", "channel network + brand cognition", "rice flour oil just need attribute", "entering condiment" and "layout of central kitchen". We estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 224.024 billion yuan, 255.376 billion yuan and 287.085 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.191 billion yuan, 7.822 billion yuan and 8.900 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE in 22 and 23 years will be 41 times and 36 times respectively.
Risk warning: food safety risk, risk of sharp rise in the price of raw materials, hedging risk, and the risk of delayed information or untimely update of the public data used in the research report.
