\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957)
The company disclosed the performance forecast of 2021 and predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 820 million to 890 million (YoY + 50.87% to + 63.75%), deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company from 770 million to 840 million (YoY + 50.20% to + 63.85%);
Among them, single Q4: net profit attributable to the parent company is 465-535 million (YoY + 41.77% to 63.11%), deducting net profit not attributable to the parent company is 437-507 million (YoY + 37.3% to 59.3%).
Revenue profit analysis:
Revenue side: the annual revenue volume is expected to be about 4 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 51.7%. According to the third party monitoring, Winona 21Q4 GMV is over 2 billion 500 million, up 100% over the same period, and 21Q4 GMV is over 200 million, mainly driven by its large single product special cream and key single product sunscreen, Shu Min essence and freeze-dried mask tiktok.
Profit side: the annual net profit is expected to be 855 million yuan, of which the net profit rate of Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 in a single quarter is 15.6% / 20.6% / 12.9% / 26.5%, and the growth rate of net profit will be faster than that of revenue. On the one hand, the maintenance of high profit margin lies in the strong brand strength of the company and the high gross profit rate. On the other hand, the expenses of the company's double 11 are advanced to Q3, and the proportion of super head will be reduced during the double 11, Therefore, Q4 did not significantly increase the proportion of sales expense investment on the premise of maintaining the rapid growth of revenue.
Recent concerns:
① Winona baby2022 is expected to upgrade its products in an all-round way, provide targeted care for different age groups, and gradually expand special channels for mothers and infants such as mother and infant stores, confinement clubs and children's hospitals, which is expected to bring new increment under the promotion of channel integration and new products.
② the implementation of the new regulations on cosmetics is expected to further benefit the products with strong efficacy. Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) as the leader of functional skin care products at the dermatological level, it is expected to further strengthen the competitive barriers and consolidate the leading position of the company under the background of stricter supervision.
Investment suggestion: buy rating
Maintain the parent company forecast of 855 / 1183 / 1543 million from 2021 to 2023, which currently corresponds to pe58 / 45x in 2022 / 2023.
Risk tip: the market space is less than expected, the product progress is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensified
